Blog on F.Cap

Lecture (April 17th/26): Valuation Models & Logical Traps

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200

We will host our third lecture on April 17th with our Portfolio Manager Gustaf Haglund.

Topic: Valuation Models & Logical Traps

Valuation models fail less because of math, more because of the assumptions we smuggle into them.

We will go through DCF, WACC and scenario modelling from a systems perspective:

where structure matters, where industries diverge, and where models silently break.

Investor Lens: The biggest valuation errors come from structural blind spots, not from discount rates.

Nextdoor (2026-04)

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200

This analysis can be downloaded as a PDF

Nextdoor (NXDR)

Decision: AVOID | COC: Yellow/Red | Aborted: Week 1 | Report date: April 10, 2026
Portfolio Manager: Gustaf Haglund
Team: Emil Nobrant (A), Tristan Harland-Peterson (B), Aron Gunnarsson (C), Albin Olsson (D)

[Lead Analyst (A)] - Overall Story & Synthesis

Nextdoor operates a hyperlocal social network connecting verified neighbors for recommendations, safety alerts, and local commerce. The thesis sounds appealing: a “digital town square” with potential network effects. Reality is less compelling. Since its 2021 SPAC debut at $4.3B, the stock has collapsed 80%+ to ~$500-800M market cap. Revenue growth decelerated to ~2% YoY in Q1 2025, and the company remains unprofitable. Management’s “NEXT” product transformation - launching mid-2025 - is effectively an admission that the core product requires reinvention. We could not confidently answer: does Nextdoor possess durable competitive advantage enabling attractive owner returns over the next decade? The burden proof was not met.

Lecture (March 5th/26): Incentives & Corporate Governance

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Slides are available here

We will host our second lunch lecture on March 5th with our Portfolio Manager Gustaf Haglund. Topic: Incentives & Corporate Governance

Why governance failures rarely come from ignorance but almost always from misaligned incentives, and how insiders shape outcomes long before numbers reveal it.

Investor Lens: Profits ≠ value when the incentive architecture is wrong. Understanding who gets paid, for what, and when, is often more revealing than any KPI.

Lecture (February 20th/26): How to Read A Financial Statement

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Slides are available here

We will host a lunch lecture on February 20th with our Portfolio Manager Gustaf Haglund.

Topic: How to Read a Financial Statement

What actually matters, where industry-specific risks are buried, and why the footnotes tell the real story.

Investor Lens: The danger of false signals when investors skim instead of diagnose.

Why it matters: Financial statements are not the business, just presentations of the business. If you read them at face value, you end up analysing the story rather than the structure.