Lecture (April 17th/26): Valuation Models & Logical Traps
We will host our third lecture on April 17th with our Portfolio Manager Gustaf Haglund.
Topic: Valuation Models & Logical Traps
Valuation models fail less because of math, more because of the assumptions we smuggle into them.
We will go through DCF, WACC and scenario modelling from a systems perspective:
where structure matters, where industries diverge, and where models silently break.
Investor Lens: The biggest valuation errors come from structural blind spots, not from discount rates.
Misunderstanding reinvestment needs, competitive dynamics, or durability of cash flows can produce valuations that look rigorous, but are directionally wrong.
Why It Matters: Many investors overestimate what valuation models can calculate, and underestimate what they cannot capture. Ourselves included.
We will walk through practical cases showing:
how small assumption shifts cascade into large valuation errors, why industry economics matter more than spreadsheet precision, and how to diagnose when a model is telling you more about the modeller than the company.
This session is about understanding where models work, where they don’t, and how to avoid some of the traps that destroy capital.
None of this removes uncertainty — it just makes it explicit.
📅 Date: April 17th
🗺️ Location: KTH (room will be sent to registered participants)
🕰️ Time: 17:15–18:00